The Run Home with two games to play, after round 8, analysis, predicted ladder, match, top eight

With just two weeks left in the first 18-team AFLW season, 13 clubs are still alive in the hunt for the finals.

But one club clings to the bottom of the top eight and could close the door this weekend, while two top-four fitness games loom.

Foxfooty.com.au predicts the first week of finals and more in The race home!

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FINALS SCHEDULED FOR WEEK 1

First qualifying final (the 1st hosts the 4th): Brisbane Lions host Collingwood

First eliminatory final (the 5th hosts the 8th): Geelong welcomes North Melbourne

Second eliminatory final (the 6th hosts the 7th): Richmond hosts the Western Bulldogs

Second qualifying final (the 2nd hosts the 3rd): Melbourne welcomes Adelaide Crows

1. BRISBANE LIONS (7-1, 243.8%)

To play: Hawthorn at Skybus Stadium, Collingwood at Metricon Stadium

Analysis: The Lions are closing in on minor premiership after their impressive win over Adelaide, although they will need to beat Hawthorn to stay ahead of Melbourne in percentage. They could still drop the top two with a loss to Collingwood in the final round, but we can’t see Brisbane falling below third place. They seem pretty certain to face the Magpies again in their qualifying finals or fight their old foes, the Crows, again.

Prediction: Go 2-0, finish first

2. MELBOURNE (7-1, 224.1%)

To play: Essendon to Casey Fields, West Coast to Casey Fields

Analysis: You would be well within your rights to have Melbourne as favorites for the minor premiership as they only have games left against two expansion teams. They seem like a sure thing for the top two, at the very least, given that either Brisbane or Collingwood won’t win in round 10. We respect the Lions’ percentage lead and suggest they stick with the first ( fair) but either way, we should get a Lions-Dees-Pies-Crows top four in some order, which is the top four this season deserves. Should be fun.

Prediction: Go 2-0, finish second

3. COLLINGWOOD (7-1, 192.4%)

To play: North Melbourne at Victoria Park, Brisbane at Metricon Stadium

Analysis: The minor premiership is probably a bridge too far just based on percentage, but the Magpies can still claim a top-two spot with a 2-0 finish – except they probably have the toughest last two weeks. of the competition. Drop a game and they should be safe in the top four; drop both and they are not. If they go 0-2, we think they are more likely to be knocked out of the top four by Richmond than by Geelong, which would be quite remarkable.

Prediction: Go 1-1, finish fourth

4. ADELAIDE CROWS (6-2, 184.8%)

To play: Geelong to Norwood Oval, St Kilda to RSEA Park

Analysis: News of a three to five week ankle injury for Chelsea skipper Randall adds to the pain for the Crows after their winning streak was cut short by Brisbane on Friday. They are indeed playing a top-four eliminator this weekend, given that you would expect them and the Cats to win in the final round (Geelong plays Sydney), and they should be the favorites. Their final position should otherwise depend on the Collingwood-Brisbane game in Round 10; they can catch the Magpies on percentage but probably not the Lions. Either way, they’re heading to the highway for a qualifying final, if they make one.

Prediction: Go 2-0, finish third

5. GEELONG CATS (6-2, 153.9%)

To play: Adelaide at Norwood Oval, Sydney at GMHBA Stadium

Analysis: Arguably the two greatest games in Geelong AFLW history came against Adelaide. The first was their surprise appearance in the 2019 finals; the second is this Friday night, in a virtual top four eliminator. Upset the Crows on the road, and the Cats would be almost certain of a double chance in the Finals, which would be a remarkable achievement considering the quality of the current top four. Lose and they’re not 100% locked in the eight – say 99.9% – but as long as they beat Sydney in the final round they’ll likely host a final.

Prediction: Go 1-1, finish fifth

6. RICHMOND (6-2, 134.9%)

To play: GWS at Mildura Sporting Precinct, North Melbourne at Arden Street

Analysis: On the league’s longest winning streak, the Tigers look almost certain to play the Finals for the first time, having already won twice as many games as they won in a season prior to this one. this. If they beat GWS they will be in a strong position to stage a final – and if North Melbourne also loses to Collingwood that would be assured. Either way, the final round clash with the Kangaroos will be key for the final standings and could result in a final rematch via elimination. (Which they probably don’t want.) And there’s even a slim chance the Tigers could snatch a top-four berth in Collingwood (since the Pies are having a tough last two weeks).

Prediction: Go 1-1, finish sixth

7. MELBOURNE NORTH (5-3, 168.4%)

To play: Collingwood to Victoria Park, Richmond to Arden Street

Analysis: The Kangaroos could still be victims of the uneven AFLW game – which deliberately gave expansion teams more games against each other, and so on. They have only lost to Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane this year, but if they also fall to fourth-placed Magpies and sixth-placed Tigers, the Roos could miss out on the top eight. If they go 0-2, the Bulldogs win at least once (and they should beat West Coast), and the Suns win twice (against Carlton and GWS), that would be curtains on North’s season. That would be pretty unfair, but it can happen. The Kangaroos are still in control of their destiny and should be good enough to win at least one of their last two games…but damn it could go to the wire.

Prediction: Go 1-1, finish eighth

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (5-3, 97.5%)

To play: West Coast to Mineral Resources Park, Carlton to Ikon Park

Analysis: After starting 4-0, the Bulldogs have finally snapped a losing streak last weekend against St Kilda, and that should be enough to put them in the eight. If they can beat lowly West Coast, they’ll end the Bombers, Blues, Giants and Hawks seasons. Then they can secure a place in the final by beating Carlton – otherwise they just need Gold Coast to lose once, as the percentage gap is reasonably large (but not impossible to make up for in the low AFLW environment). score).

Prediction: Go 2-0, finish seventh

9. GOLD COAST SUNS (4-4, 80.5%)

To play: Carlton at Metricon Stadium, GWS at Henson Park

Analysis: Last weekend’s crushing loss to Melbourne did a lot of damage to the Suns’ percentage. And so, even though they are by far the most likely team to make the finals in the top eight, they still need help. They have two realistic paths: win twice and pass the Bulldogs to percentage after the Dogs lose to Carlton (possible) Where win twice and replace a North Melbourne side losing to both Collingwood and Richmond. North are quite clearly the better side of the Dogs-Suns-Roos trio, but their game means they might be the most likely to miss…we continue to advise the Roos to hold on. Just.

Prediction: Go 2-0, miss final on percentage

10. ESSENDON (3-5, 103.1%)

To play: Melbourne to Casey Fields, Port Adelaide to Alberton Oval

Analysis: By far the most impressive expansion team, the Bombers have been competitive almost every week. But they’re still going to have to win two games to sneak into the eight and that would mean beating Melbourne. It seems unlikely.

Prediction: Go 1-1, miss the final

11. CARLTON (2-4-2, 77.8%)

To play: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium, Western Bulldogs at Ikon Park

Analysis: On the plus side, the Blues still have two games to play against two of the teams they need to pass to make the eight. Realistically though, unless West Coast beat the Bulldogs next week, they’re done – with those two draws and the Round 6 loss to GWS most to blame.

Prediction: Go 0-2, miss the final

12. GWS GIANTS (3-5, 62.4%)

To play: Richmond to Mildura Sporting Precinct, Gold Coast to Henson Park

Analysis: Like other teams with 12 points, the Giants need the Bulldogs to go 0-2 to have a chance of making the Finals, so they’re cheering on West Coast this Saturday. But they’re also expected to beat an in-form Richmond team the next day, so either way, we think the Giants’ season will end this weekend.

Prediction: Go 0-2, miss the final

13. HAWTHORN (3-5, 60.8%)

To play: Brisbane at Skybus Stadium, Fremantle at Fremantle Oval

Analysis: To be honest, back in the preseason, no one expected the Hawks to be alive in the hunt for the Finals with two weeks to go, so that’s already a big win. But they have to beat Brisbane to stay alive and… yeah, I don’t see that happening.

Prediction: Go 0-2, miss the final

St Kilda, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney cannot play the finals.